I can't remember if I posted anything on target betting on this forum or not. In case some of you don't know what target betting is, it's betting 1 unit on each spin until you have a win and then you bet the total of all the units you are down up to that point plus 1 unit.
What this means is that anytime you win twice in a row, you are fully recovered and have 1 unit to add to profits. All you have to do is win 2 times in a row before you run out of money or reach the table limit. It can't always be done, although one person has a blog that he uses to publish how he has been winning thousands of dollars playing this system. Granted he does have to bet upwards of $25,000 every now and then.
I have thought about his system for a while and I think I can better it a little. Here's how.
We bet 1 unit until we lose. After a loss, we stop betting for real but we continue to play virtually until we have a win. Then we make a real bet.
This is the same thing as he does only we don't lose all those units during losing streaks that we have to bet after a win.
Here's how he does it.
Bet W/L Total
1 L -1
1 L -2
1 L -3
1 W -2
3 L -5
1 L -6
1 L -7
1 L -8
1 W -7
8 L -15
1 W -14
15 W +1
As you can see, he eventually had to bet 15 units to recover all his losses.
Here's how it would look with my tweak.
Bet W/L Total
1 L -1
0 L -1
0 L -1
0 W -1
2 L -3
0 L -3
0 L -3
0 L -3
0 W -3
4 L -7
0 W -7
8 W +1
As you can see, we only had to bet 8 instead of 15 to reach +1 the same amount of profit.
This will keep your bets much lower.
This is all well and good, but let's use the same idea and change things completely.
I recommend that we play this using the D'Alembert bet method, +1 on a loss and -1 on a win. I think this will give us a much better chance of winning and will keep our bet sizes much smaller than the original target betting.
I have been testing this a little and it's working like gang busters!
Here's an example
My System
Bet W/L Total
1 L -1
0 L -1
0 L -1
0 W -1
2 L -3
0 L -3
0 L -3
0 L -3
0 W -3
3 L -6
0 W -6
4 W -2
3 L -5
0 L -5
0 L -5
0 L -5
0 W -5
4 W -1
3 L -4
0 L -4
0 L -4
0 W -4
4 W 0
1 W +1
Now I will show the above spins using the regular D'Alembert bet method
Bet W/L Total
1 L -1
2 L -3
3 L -6
4 W -2
3 L -5
4 L -9
5 L -14
6 L -20
7 W -13
6 L -19
7 W -12
6 W -6
5 L -11
6 L -17
7 L -24
8 L -32
9 W -23
8 W -15
7 L -22
8 L -30
9 L -39
10 W -29
9 W -20
8 W -12
So we see that the same spins result in a loss of 12 units with a high bet size of 10 units and a draw down of 39 units.
My system using the same spins results in a win of 1 unit with a high bet size of 4 units and a draw down of only 6 units.
Can anybody see any value in this approach or am I way out there with the Iceman?
GLC
Hey GLC,
Excellent version of the original "Target Betting" system!
A couple of questions, closely related :
1) What do you think his original bankroll was for the Target Betting system (can't seem to find it on the blog, other than the 1-5000 betting spread)?
2) What would your bankroll suggestion be for your version?
Thanks!