This is what I do not understand.
The worst case scenario in millions of spins is only 68 Red hits in 200 spins which is just a 34% hit rate.
BA's MM did not pass these 200 spins as he was -466.5 at spin 200. (Data below)
However within 29 spins after this point at spin 229 his MM secured the win.
So there were 87 hits in 229 spins which is a still just a 38% hit rate, a 4% difference from 68 hits in 200 spins.
I am pretty sure that was also the worst 229 spin sequence in millions of spins. But lets say a 34% hit rate in 229 spins is the worst case scenario which would total just 77 hits. This will only happen once, let say twice in 1 million spins where a hit rate is between 34% and 37% during a 229 spin stretch. All other scenarios have a 38% or higher hit rate.
1 million consecutive spins divided by 229 is 4366 total sessions played (each consisting of 229 spins)
Total BR (that BA uses is 1000 units) an average win per session is +-? 10 units (I am sure its higher, but lets go lower say just 2 units)
4364 x 2 = +8728
minus 2 losing sessions = 2 x -1000 (a hit rate of less than 38% in a stretch of 229 spins) = -2000 units
+8728 - 2000 = +6728 units for 4366 session played of 229 spins each
My conclusion is: as long as we achieve a 38% hit rate for 229 spins we will be in the plus which should be everytime you play in a casino for the next 11 years if you played one 229 spin session per day. However, there will be +- 2 days when you lose out of the 4366. The average session will not be 229 spins long.......
Yes, BA played this on a French roulette wheel with the Le Partage rule for the zero, but this should not matter as we can also choose to play on the French wheel ( at least in Europe)
Blue Angels Data for only 68 hits in 200 spins and 87 hits in 229 spins
BETTING ALWAYS ON RED / FRENCH ROULETTE WITH "LE PARTAGE" RULE
S=Spin R=Result T=Total
S R T
1 -1 -1
2 -1 -2
3x +1 -1
4 -1 -2
5x +1 -1
6 -1 -2
7x +1 -1
8 -1 -2
9 -1 -3
10x +1 -2
11 -1 -3
12x +1 -2
13 -1 -3
14/ZERO -0.5 -3.5
15 -1 -4.5
16x +1 -3.5
17 -1 -4.5
18 -1 -5.5
19 -1 -6.5
20 -1 -7.5
21x +1 -6.5
22 -1 -7.5
23x +1 -6.5
24 -1 -7.5
25 -1 -8.5
26 -1 -9.5
27 -1 -10.5
28 -1 -11.5
29x +1 -10.5
30 -1 -11.5
31x +1 -10.5
32x +1 -9.5
33 -1 -10.5
34 -1 -11.5
35x +1 -10.5
36x +1 -9.5
37x +1 -8.5
38x +2 -6.5 BET RAISES TO 2 UNITS
39 -2 -8.5
40 -2 -10.5
41 -2 -12.5
42x +2 -10.5
43 -2 -12.5
44 -2 -14.5
45x +2 -12.5
46x +2 -10.5
47 -2 -12.5
48 -2 -14.5
49 -2 -16.5
50 -2 -18.5
51 -2 -20.5
52x +2 -18.5
53 -2 -20.5
54 -2 -22.5
55x +2 -20.5
56 -2 -22.5
57 -2 -24.5
58x +2 -22.5
59 -2 -24.5
60 -2 -26.5
61 -2 -28.5
62x +2 -26.5
63 -2 -28.5
64 -2 -30.5
65x +2 -28.5
66 -2 -30.5
67 -2 -32.5
68x +2 -30.5
69x +2 -28.5
70 -2 -30.5
71x +2 -28.5
72 -2 -30.5
73 -2 -32.5
74 -2 -34.5
75x +4 -30.5 BET RAISES TO 4 UNITS
76 -4 -34.5
77x +4 -30.5
78 -4 -34.5
79 -4 -38.5
80x +4 -34.5
81 -4 -38.5
82 -4 -42.5
83 -4 -46.5
84 -4 -50.5
85 -4 -52.5
86 -4 -56.5
87 -4 -60.5
88 -4 -64.5
89 -4 -68.5
90x +4 -64.5
91 -4 -68.5
92x +4 -64.5
93 -4 -68.5
94 -4 -72.5
95x +4 -68.5
96 -4 -72.5
97x +4 -68.5
98 -4 -72.5
99 -4 -76.5
100 -4 -80.5
101x +4 -76.5
102x +4 -72.5
103 -4 -76.5
104x +4 -72.5
105/ZERO -2 -74.5
106 -4 -78.5
107 -4 -82.5
108 -4 -86.5
109 -4 -90.5
110 -4 -94.5
111 -4 -98.5
112 -8 -106.5 BET RAISES TO 8 UNITS
113 -8 -114.5
114x +8 -106.5
115 -8 -114.5
116 -8 -122.5
117x +8 -114.5
118 -8 -122.5
119x +8 -114.5
120 -8 -122.5
121 -8 -130.5
122x +8 -122.5
123 -8 -130.5
124 -8 -138.5
125 -8 -146.5
126 -8 -154.5
127 -8 -162.5
128x +8 -154.5
129x +8 -146.5
130x +8 -138.5
131x +8 -130.5
132 -8 -138.5
133 -8 -146.5
134x +8 -138.5
135 -8 -146.5
136 -8 -154.5
137 -8 -162.5
138x +8 -154.5
139 -8 -162.5
140x +8 -154.5
141 -8 -162.5
142 -8 -170.5
143x +8 -162.5
144 -8 -170.5
145x +8 -162.5
146x +8 -154.5
147x +8 -146.5
148 -8 -154.5
149x +16 -138.5 BET RAISES TO 16 UNITS
150x +16 -122.5
151 -16 -138.5
152 -16 -154.5
153/ZERO -8 -162.5
154x +16 -146.5
155x +16 -130.5
156 -16 -146.5
157 -16 -162.5
158x +16 -146.5
159 -16 -162.5
160 -16 -178.5
161 -16 -194.5
162 -16 -210.5
163x +16 -194.5
164x +16 -178.5
165 -16 -194.5
166 -16 -210.5
167 -16 -226.5
168x +16 -210.5
169 -16 -226.5
170 -16 -242.5
171x +16 -226.5
172x +16 -210.5
173 -16 -226.5
174x +16 -210.5
175x +16 -194.5
176 -16 -210.5
177 -16 -226.5
178 -16 -242.5
179 -16 -258.5
180x +16 -242.5
181 -16 -258.5
182 -16 -274.5
183 -16 -290.5
184x +16 -274.5
185 -16 -290.5
186/ZERO -16 -306.5 BET RAISES TO 32 UNITS
187x +32 -274.5
188 -32 -306.5
189 -32 -338.5
190/ZERO -16 -354.5
191 -32 -386.5
192x +32 -354.5
193x +32 -322.5
194 -32 -354.5
195 -32 -386.5
196x +32 -354.5
197 -32 -386.5
198 -32 -418.5
199/ZERO -16 -434.5
200 -32 -466.5 34% Hit Rate in 200 spins
201 10 -32 -498.5
202 6 -32 -530.5
203 14 +32 -498.5
204 21 +32 -466.5
205 30 +32 -434.5
206 11 -32 -466.5
207 12 +32 -434.5
208 10 -32 -466.5
209 22 -32 -498.5
210 34 +32 -466.5
211 10 -32 -498.5
212 16 +32 -466.5
213 0 -16 -482.5
214 14 +32 -450.5
215 8 -32 -482.5
216 34 +32 -450.5
217 18 +32 -418.5
218 19 +32 -386.5
219 25 +32 -354.5
220 35 -32 -386.5
221 34 +32 -354.5
222 29 -32 -386.5
223 16 +64 -322.5 BET RAISES TO 64 UNITS
224 21 +64 -258.5
225 12 +64 -194.5
226 30 +64 -130.5
227 9 +64 -66.5
228 34 +64 -2.5
229 32 +64 +61.5 BET RESETS TO 1 UNIT 38% Hit Rate in 229 spins
The worst case scenario in millions of spins is only 68 Red hits in 200 spins which is just a 34% hit rate.
BA's MM did not pass these 200 spins as he was -466.5 at spin 200. (Data below)
However within 29 spins after this point at spin 229 his MM secured the win.
So there were 87 hits in 229 spins which is a still just a 38% hit rate, a 4% difference from 68 hits in 200 spins.
I am pretty sure that was also the worst 229 spin sequence in millions of spins. But lets say a 34% hit rate in 229 spins is the worst case scenario which would total just 77 hits. This will only happen once, let say twice in 1 million spins where a hit rate is between 34% and 37% during a 229 spin stretch. All other scenarios have a 38% or higher hit rate.
1 million consecutive spins divided by 229 is 4366 total sessions played (each consisting of 229 spins)
Total BR (that BA uses is 1000 units) an average win per session is +-? 10 units (I am sure its higher, but lets go lower say just 2 units)
4364 x 2 = +8728
minus 2 losing sessions = 2 x -1000 (a hit rate of less than 38% in a stretch of 229 spins) = -2000 units
+8728 - 2000 = +6728 units for 4366 session played of 229 spins each
My conclusion is: as long as we achieve a 38% hit rate for 229 spins we will be in the plus which should be everytime you play in a casino for the next 11 years if you played one 229 spin session per day. However, there will be +- 2 days when you lose out of the 4366. The average session will not be 229 spins long.......
Yes, BA played this on a French roulette wheel with the Le Partage rule for the zero, but this should not matter as we can also choose to play on the French wheel ( at least in Europe)
Blue Angels Data for only 68 hits in 200 spins and 87 hits in 229 spins
BETTING ALWAYS ON RED / FRENCH ROULETTE WITH "LE PARTAGE" RULE
S=Spin R=Result T=Total
S R T
1 -1 -1
2 -1 -2
3x +1 -1
4 -1 -2
5x +1 -1
6 -1 -2
7x +1 -1
8 -1 -2
9 -1 -3
10x +1 -2
11 -1 -3
12x +1 -2
13 -1 -3
14/ZERO -0.5 -3.5
15 -1 -4.5
16x +1 -3.5
17 -1 -4.5
18 -1 -5.5
19 -1 -6.5
20 -1 -7.5
21x +1 -6.5
22 -1 -7.5
23x +1 -6.5
24 -1 -7.5
25 -1 -8.5
26 -1 -9.5
27 -1 -10.5
28 -1 -11.5
29x +1 -10.5
30 -1 -11.5
31x +1 -10.5
32x +1 -9.5
33 -1 -10.5
34 -1 -11.5
35x +1 -10.5
36x +1 -9.5
37x +1 -8.5
38x +2 -6.5 BET RAISES TO 2 UNITS
39 -2 -8.5
40 -2 -10.5
41 -2 -12.5
42x +2 -10.5
43 -2 -12.5
44 -2 -14.5
45x +2 -12.5
46x +2 -10.5
47 -2 -12.5
48 -2 -14.5
49 -2 -16.5
50 -2 -18.5
51 -2 -20.5
52x +2 -18.5
53 -2 -20.5
54 -2 -22.5
55x +2 -20.5
56 -2 -22.5
57 -2 -24.5
58x +2 -22.5
59 -2 -24.5
60 -2 -26.5
61 -2 -28.5
62x +2 -26.5
63 -2 -28.5
64 -2 -30.5
65x +2 -28.5
66 -2 -30.5
67 -2 -32.5
68x +2 -30.5
69x +2 -28.5
70 -2 -30.5
71x +2 -28.5
72 -2 -30.5
73 -2 -32.5
74 -2 -34.5
75x +4 -30.5 BET RAISES TO 4 UNITS
76 -4 -34.5
77x +4 -30.5
78 -4 -34.5
79 -4 -38.5
80x +4 -34.5
81 -4 -38.5
82 -4 -42.5
83 -4 -46.5
84 -4 -50.5
85 -4 -52.5
86 -4 -56.5
87 -4 -60.5
88 -4 -64.5
89 -4 -68.5
90x +4 -64.5
91 -4 -68.5
92x +4 -64.5
93 -4 -68.5
94 -4 -72.5
95x +4 -68.5
96 -4 -72.5
97x +4 -68.5
98 -4 -72.5
99 -4 -76.5
100 -4 -80.5
101x +4 -76.5
102x +4 -72.5
103 -4 -76.5
104x +4 -72.5
105/ZERO -2 -74.5
106 -4 -78.5
107 -4 -82.5
108 -4 -86.5
109 -4 -90.5
110 -4 -94.5
111 -4 -98.5
112 -8 -106.5 BET RAISES TO 8 UNITS
113 -8 -114.5
114x +8 -106.5
115 -8 -114.5
116 -8 -122.5
117x +8 -114.5
118 -8 -122.5
119x +8 -114.5
120 -8 -122.5
121 -8 -130.5
122x +8 -122.5
123 -8 -130.5
124 -8 -138.5
125 -8 -146.5
126 -8 -154.5
127 -8 -162.5
128x +8 -154.5
129x +8 -146.5
130x +8 -138.5
131x +8 -130.5
132 -8 -138.5
133 -8 -146.5
134x +8 -138.5
135 -8 -146.5
136 -8 -154.5
137 -8 -162.5
138x +8 -154.5
139 -8 -162.5
140x +8 -154.5
141 -8 -162.5
142 -8 -170.5
143x +8 -162.5
144 -8 -170.5
145x +8 -162.5
146x +8 -154.5
147x +8 -146.5
148 -8 -154.5
149x +16 -138.5 BET RAISES TO 16 UNITS
150x +16 -122.5
151 -16 -138.5
152 -16 -154.5
153/ZERO -8 -162.5
154x +16 -146.5
155x +16 -130.5
156 -16 -146.5
157 -16 -162.5
158x +16 -146.5
159 -16 -162.5
160 -16 -178.5
161 -16 -194.5
162 -16 -210.5
163x +16 -194.5
164x +16 -178.5
165 -16 -194.5
166 -16 -210.5
167 -16 -226.5
168x +16 -210.5
169 -16 -226.5
170 -16 -242.5
171x +16 -226.5
172x +16 -210.5
173 -16 -226.5
174x +16 -210.5
175x +16 -194.5
176 -16 -210.5
177 -16 -226.5
178 -16 -242.5
179 -16 -258.5
180x +16 -242.5
181 -16 -258.5
182 -16 -274.5
183 -16 -290.5
184x +16 -274.5
185 -16 -290.5
186/ZERO -16 -306.5 BET RAISES TO 32 UNITS
187x +32 -274.5
188 -32 -306.5
189 -32 -338.5
190/ZERO -16 -354.5
191 -32 -386.5
192x +32 -354.5
193x +32 -322.5
194 -32 -354.5
195 -32 -386.5
196x +32 -354.5
197 -32 -386.5
198 -32 -418.5
199/ZERO -16 -434.5
200 -32 -466.5 34% Hit Rate in 200 spins
201 10 -32 -498.5
202 6 -32 -530.5
203 14 +32 -498.5
204 21 +32 -466.5
205 30 +32 -434.5
206 11 -32 -466.5
207 12 +32 -434.5
208 10 -32 -466.5
209 22 -32 -498.5
210 34 +32 -466.5
211 10 -32 -498.5
212 16 +32 -466.5
213 0 -16 -482.5
214 14 +32 -450.5
215 8 -32 -482.5
216 34 +32 -450.5
217 18 +32 -418.5
218 19 +32 -386.5
219 25 +32 -354.5
220 35 -32 -386.5
221 34 +32 -354.5
222 29 -32 -386.5
223 16 +64 -322.5 BET RAISES TO 64 UNITS
224 21 +64 -258.5
225 12 +64 -194.5
226 30 +64 -130.5
227 9 +64 -66.5
228 34 +64 -2.5
229 32 +64 +61.5 BET RESETS TO 1 UNIT 38% Hit Rate in 229 spins