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Re: Random Thoughts

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Priyanka said that each cycle length event has constant odds, but this is somewhat misleading, as we can manipulate those odds by entering the game at a "tipping point"?

Here I reset Cycle Lengths (temporary) whenever Same is greater than Different or CL2 is greater than the rest.
Cycle Lengths (normal) is what the cycle lengths would have been if not constantly being reset.

Another snapshot of these stats, Cycle Lengths (biased), is taken when (CL3 - CL2 > 5).



So if we wait for CL3 to go ahead by 6 then we can convert CL2 odds from 37% to 41%. And I'm sure this can be improved upon after figuring out the best tipping point and optimum time to reset the stats. This is just a very preliminary test to demonstrate that the odds - within this cyclic framework of constant ratios - are not necessarily fixed.

However, Priyanka doesn't seem to use any cycle length tipping point for knowing when to switch to a bet on CL3. It's possible that she alternates from CL 2 > CL 3 > CL 2 > CL3... the reason? There is a 70 odd % chance that the next cycle length will be different to the previous; perhaps we can rely on this basic stat to guide us with entry into CL3? (I certainly haven't found any other genuine trigger yet except waiting for the aforementioned tipping point)

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