When you say "above average," over how many spins are you talking about?
Yeap. Also for how long are you monitoring them above average and flat bet them? Do you stop it after a number of cycles (eg you stop after 185 spins? 5*37cycles) or do you flat bet forever as long as a number has shown above expected after any number of spins at all?
A member sent me a pm asking about the Andruchi system (google it). It's been exposed as a scam numerous times but I don't think the dodgy calculations on the website have been exposed for what they are (the member was asking specifically about those).
Basically the system involves waiting for 20 unique numbers to appear, the procedure is to then bet for the next 3 spins (or until a hit) on the remaining 17 numbers using a progression.
Andruchi uses some weird calculation to find the probability of getting at least one hit in the 3 spins, which, according to him, is 91.49%. This gives the probability of a progression bust of 100% - 91.49% = 8.51%. The average win is 8.33 units and a progression loss of will cost you 68 units, and on this basis the total expectation is positive (see calculation below in the image).
The correct calculation to find the probability of at least one hit in the 3 spins is as follows (I'll start from first principles so it's easy to follow):
You are betting on 17 numbers, and if you win it will either be on the first, second, or third spin.
The chance of a win is 17/37 and the chance of a loss is 1 - 17/37 = 20/37
Win on spin 1: The probability is just 17/37 Win on spin 2: You lose on the first spin and win on the second, so the probability is 20/37 * 17/37 Win on spin 3: You lose on the first and second spins and win on the third, so the probability is 20/37 * 20/37 * 17/37
Since if you win it must be on either spin 1 or spin 2 or spin 3, and since these results are mutually exclusive, we just add them to get the probability of at least one hit in the 3 spins.
17/37 + 20/37*17/37 + 20/37*20/37*17/37 = 0.8421 or 84.21% (rather less than Andruchi's result).
Now this gives the probability of a complete loss as 100% - 84.21% = 15.79% (rather more than Andruchi's result).
Now if we repeat his calculation using these probabilities, the expectation is:
0.8421*8.33 - 0.1579*68 = -3.723
Not positive after all. Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.
I cant enjoy it when an idiot troll steps in and the site owner doesnt give a shit less. Mr J is a blabbering idiot.
Maybe steve should READ a few pages back. Yes steve. Since you chimed in why dont u go 2 pages back and read how mr j went on. Even another moderator posted in this thread that he was trolling.
Why don't you take into account wheel speed and spin direction?
I didn't want to make it more complicated than what already is. Sometimes dealers are giving me hard time by spinning quickly from one spin to the next, it would become unplayable if I added more conditions and rules.
i calculate to see how many spins it needs to be shown to be considered a hot number. for example in 260 spins now it needs a number to be hit 9 times or more to be counted above expected.
What is the calc to get the answer for a hot number
Caleb had a gamblers fallacy remark in conspiracy thread. For no reason. That is the definition of trolling. A mod deleted it. But thats an example of the stupidity that makes this hard
If you moderate caleb it will help. This way if it is an antagonizing post it never makes it to the board.
You cannot be good for a forum if every interaction is berating people and putting them down. 98 percent of his posts.
@BO .... I did like your doing it. But that session wasn't an average one. Just one of those rare ones. But your way does holds up so far. It's ok that you get some dd. Use a good MM and keep going Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view. (I'll keep testing this as well)
@General..... I'm only playing on a one direction European wheel. But thx for the advice. Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.
Winkel calm down. Just let me know the exact post where you think ken began to be a troll on your thread. Give me the exact post and please calmly explain the problem.
RG, being nice or a prick has nothing to do with logic. Right now I'm trying to understand what has Winkel so upset.
So far all winkel reported is this fom ken:
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....and another post attacking me. RG, Turner....where you at?
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Nope, wrong again. I love how I get attacked and when I RESPOND, I am "looking for a rise"? Its real simple, I wont back down. Leave me alone, its not too tough.
So far it looks like a big fuss over nothing. BUT I'm asking winkel to provide the info above
