No, we don't rely on luck.ok...accepting your crude formula, there are some edges of lower values, say 5% where -3xSQ would still get you into a negative
so my question is, how do you know your edge value without playing it? ...where you may find your edge wasnt that good.
heres the rub...and I may be wrong.
You would only know what edge you had by using the past data you had collected.
So you are predicting future play by using past data.
