ok...accepting your crude formula, there are some edges of lower values, say 5% where -3xSQ would still get you into a negative
so my question is, how do you know your edge value without playing it? ...where you may find your edge wasnt that good.
heres the rub...and I may be wrong.
You would only know what edge you had by using the past data you had collected.
So you are predicting future play by using past data.
Yes
But but but its right for this. It is not meaningless here